Performance indices of soft computing models to predict the heat load of buildings in terms of architectural indicators

Abstract

This study estimates the heat load of buildings in Izmir/Turkey by three soft computing (SC) methods; Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), Fuzzy Logic (FL) and Adaptive Neuro-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and compares their prediction indices. Obtaining knowledge about what the heat load of buildings would be in architectural design stage is necessary to forecast the building performance and take precautions against any possible failure. The best accuracy and prediction power of novel soft computing techniques would assist the practical way of this process. For this purpose, four inputs, namely, wall overall heat transfer coefficient, building area/ volume ratio, total external surface area and total window area/total external surface area ratio were employed in each model of this study. The predicted heat load is evaluated comparatively using simulation outputs. The ANN model estimated the heat load of the case apartments with a rate of 97.7% and the MAPE of 5.06%; while these ratios are 98.6% and 3.56% in Mamdani fuzzy inference systems (FL); 99.0% and 2.43% in ANFIS. When these values were compared, it was found that the ANFIS model has become the best learning technique among the others and can be applicable in building energy performance studies.