Model-coupled GRACE-based analysis of hydrological dynamics of drying Lake Urmia and its basin

Abstract

Lake Urmia basin (LUB), in northwestern Iran, is under the influence of extreme degradation due to a number of natural and anthropogenic factors. The existence of the Lake is critical for the microclimate of the region as well as the quality of human life and wildlife, which necessitates an up-to-date and holistic analysis of its hydrological dynamics. In this premise, satellite-based terrestrial water storage (TWS) received from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission was coupled with hydrometeorological modelling and assessment tools to analyse the hydrological status of the lake and its basin. As a new gap-filling approach, the Seasonal-Trend decomposition using Locally estimated scatterplot smoothing (LOESS) (STL) decomposition technique was proposed in this study to reconstruct the missing TWS data. Integrating satellite precipitation data with the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) and WaterGAP model outputs, the hydrological status of the lake was investigated. The STL-based TWS turned out to concord well with the simulated TWS from the CLSM indicating the acceptable performance of the proposed technique. The findings revealed that the LUB had undergone an alarming hydrological situation from 2003 to 2021 with a total loss of 10 and 7.56km3 from its TWS and groundwater storage (GWS), respectively. The water level time series also indicated that the water level of the lake had diminished with an annual rate of -70 +/- 21cm/year corresponding to a total water level depletion of about 13.35 +/- 3.9m during the 2003-2021 period. The GRACE-derived TWS and GWS also agreed well with the CLSM simulations. Assessment of the extreme events of the LUB suggested that the basin suffered from a severe dry event in 2008 resulting in the depletion of its water storage and water level. It was also found that from 2003 onward, a critical hydrological setting had dominated the LUB with a negative hydrological balance of -0.96km3.