Radiological modeling of the impacts of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident on Turkey and southwest Asia

Abstract

Many studies investigated the impacts of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident on Europe. However, majority of these have spatially excluded the highly populated southeast region of Chernobyl, including countries such as Turkey, Armenia, Georgia and Iran. In this study, a comprehensive environmental and radiological analysis were conducted particularly for this region. For this purpose, atmospheric dispersion and ground deposition of radionuclides were estimated using a Lagrangian particle dispersion model, FLEXPART. Totally, six simulations were conducted and model results were validated with measurements from Europe and Turkey. Furthermore, total effective dose equivalent (TEDE) values were estimated for adults and infants using the most current dose conversion factors of ICRP. Highest deposition of 137Cs were found in around Eastern Black Sea areas (10–40 kBq/m2). Similar values were found in some locations of Armenia and Azerbaijan under some scenarios, but country averages of 137Cs deposition were lower than 10 kBq/m2 for both countries. No significant depositions were found in southwest Iran, but relatively higher depositions (2–10 kBq/m2) of 137Cs were estimated along the Turkish border. Although there were slightly higher values in northern areas of Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Cyprus, 137Cs depositions were mostly less than 2 kBq/m2. The 1-year TEDE value was calculated less than 1 mSv throughout the model domain except for some regions of eastern Black Sea. Highest values in lifetime dose values were calculated along the Black Sea coasts of Turkey and Georgia. Overall, infants were affected more from ionizing radiation compared to adults in this region.