Investigating a suitable empirical model and performing regional analysis for the suspended sediment load prediction in major rivers of the Aegean Region, Turkey

Abstract

This study investigates the appropriateness of four major empirical methods [Lane and Kalinske, Einstein, Brooks, Chang—Simons—Richardson] for predicting suspended sediment loads (SSLs) in three major rivers in the Aegean Region, Turkey. The measured data from 1975 to 2005 were used to test performance of the models. It was found that Brooks method was more appropriate, among the others, for predicting suspended sediment loads from each river. The prediction results of Brooks method were further improved by the use of genetic algorithm (GA_Brooks) optimizing a fitting parameter and showing a comparable performance to those of artificial neural networks (ANNs) and neuro-fuzzy (ANFIS) models for the same rivers. GA_Brooks, ANNs, and ANFIS models can be used for predicting loads at a regional scale. The sensitivity analysis results revealed that suspended and bed material particle diameters affect suspended sediment loads significantly.