The analysis of the planning consequences and risk of earthquake in terms of urban rent: the case study of Adapazarı

Abstract

General aims of the thesis were to understand the nature and causes of earthquake damage in built and social environment, to define and assess urban seismic risk in Turkey and the World, to interrogate planning regulations, policies, and implementations, and to determine the risk factors from social, economic, natural viewpoints. However, the thesis assumed that the increase of the risk as correlated to the raised rent values could be related to planning decisions. The thesis aimed to look closely to planning decisions and their causality on the increase of earthquake risk in terms of urban rent. The study assumes that there are strong relationships among earthquake damage, urban rent and planning decisions. Various risk factors related to earthquake damage were described as natural, social, economic and technical factors.But the scope of the thesis was limited to social risk factors with respect to earthquake damage in order to clarify impact of urban rent and planning decisions.Multiple Regression and correlation analysis was used as a method in order to provide an experimental fundamental and to test claims. In this study, unit of data analysis is defined as scale of district or "mahalle" in Adapazari. Firstly, data such as population density, earthquake damage, the physical building density, and land price (urban rent) in Adapazari was assigned to unit of "mahalle". After analysis in scale of "mahalle" was completed in 26 districts, correlation and regression analysis through variables are conducted in order to enlighten relationships among earthquake damage and urban rent and plan decisions. The study examined that what planning decisions urban rent influence and what their explanatory degree was through regression and correlation analysis. For this step land price or urban rent was analyzed with population density, distance to the city center and ground area ratio through regression and correlation. In the second step earthquake damage was analyzed with independent variables, land value or urban rent, average distance of demolished buildings to the city center and physical building density. Variables coming planning decisions and urban rent and earthquake damage in second step are analyzed through correlation and regression.In the first step, when outcomes of analysis between urban rent (land price) and other variables were assessed, the calculated R square is approximately 52 % and relationships between dependent and independent variables were not strong. In the second step, when analysis between earthquake damage ratio and other variables were assessed, R square is approximately 63% and relationships between dependent and independent variables were not very strong.In conclusion, my assumption related to urban rent and earthquake damage was falsified by correlation and regression analysis. However, it does not mean that there is not any relationship between earthquake damage and land price (urban rent ). The goal of this study was to understand impact of mentioned factors on earthquake damage. The study suggests that future researches related earthquake damage should be focus on natural risk factors and building technology of construction.Key words: natural disaster, urban rent, earthquake damage, planning decisions, conventional planning, risk management and contingency planning, regression and correlation analysis.