Assessment of future water demand in a semiarid region of Turkey: a case study of Tahtali–Seferihisar Basin

Abstract

Water is a vital resource for society and nature, and its scarcity has consequences in all aspects of existence. Today, issues including the inability to preserve the status of existing water resources and excessive water withdrawal are causing the amount of water to diminish day by day. Furthermore, factors such as urbanization and industrialization, population growth, water quality degradation owing to agricultural pesticides, and climate change, all have a negative impact on water supplies. A basin-based water management analysis was carried out in this study by applying the "Integrated Water Resources Management" strategy to the Tahtalı–Seferihisar sub-basin in Turkey, where water stress is expected in the future. Using the WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning System) model, the hydrological (precipitation, flow, evaporation) data of important water resources for the basin and Izmir (Tahtalı, Seferihisar, Ürkmez, and Kavakdere Dams) were used to predict the availability of water resources in the future, and several possible scenarios for water demands/supplies were analyzed. The water budget balances projected in 2050 have been calculated by considering six different scenarios: Reference Scenario, Report Consumption Scenario, Optimistic Case Scenario, Pessimistic Case Scenario, Return Flow Scenario, and Various Forecast Scenario. The water balances that can be obtained in each scenario under various situations were computed and compared. For all considered scenarios, unmet water demand in the basin is found to be significant (157.52 hm3 in the Optimistic Case Scenario and 373.16 hm3 in the Pessimistic Case Scenario).