Browsing by Author "Safari, Mir Jafar Sadegh"

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Developing Feasible Structural Flood Mitigation Measures for Arid Regions Using Hydrological and Hydraulic Modelling: a Case of Baledweyne City, Somalia
(Springer Int Publ Ag, 2025) Ibrahim, Abdullahi Abdulwahid; Tayfur, Gokmen; Safari, Mir Jafar Sadegh; 03.03. Department of Civil Engineering; 03. Faculty of Engineering; 01. Izmir Institute of Technology
Flood mitigation measures are essential in several aspects of environmental sustainability, such as environmental protection and development, infrastructure resilience, and climate change adaptation strategies. This study investigates several remedial measures such as flood and disaster risk reduction strategies to protect Baledwayne City, Somalia. The developed hydrological-hydraulic model is successfully calibrated using the 2019 flood event. Inundation maps for different mitigation measures are developed to determine the most appropriate one(s) that may reduce flood impact and protect the city, especially the residential areas, against peak discharge of a 500-year return period. The investigated mitigation measures include (1) operating the Warabole Diversion Canal, (2) building two detention ponds at the upstream sections of both right and left floodplains, (3) building levees (dikes) along both sides of Shabelle River, and (4) restoration of the river. Results show that the remedial measures for the Warabole Diversion Channel and the river restoration are insufficient to protect the city. Building ponds on the right- and left-hand sides of the river substantially protects the city from flooding by reducing the flooded area from 88.6 to 31.5 km2, which is equivalent to a reduction of 35.5%. Construction of dikes on both sides of the river does not protect the city by overflowing an area of 75.2 km2 (84.9%). A combination of several measures is also investigated and it is found that ponds must be built along with any alternative measure. When all four measures are combined, it becomes clear that the city's residential areas would be fully protected, significantly reducing the overall flooded area of the city to 27.9 km2 (31.5%). These flooded areas are behind the detention pond, which is designed to hold floodwater and gradually drain it back to the river.
Drought Assessment in Aydın and İzmir Districts in Turkey
(01. Izmir Institute of Technology, 2022-11) Mersin, Denizhan; Safari, Mir Jafar Sadegh; Tayfur, Gökmen; 03.03. Department of Civil Engineering; 03. Faculty of Engineering; 01. Izmir Institute of Technology
Drought indices are widely used in order to track the severity, duration, and frequency of droughts, drought indices are frequently utilized. Turkey's Aegean region, which is expanding, has a range of water resources, including lakes, streams, lakes, and groundwater aquifers. In this study, the drought features in the Büyük Menderes, Küçük Menderes, and Gediz basins in the Aegean area of Turkey are investigated using long-term total precipitation and temperature records from 14 meteorological stations between 1973 and 2020 (47 years). For this, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and Discrepancy Precipitation Index (DPI) are used to investigate drought patterns, monthly and over 3-, 6-, and 12-month (annual) periods. The results reveal that the monthly indices show almost the same results for the whole study area, but the different indices differ in the severity of drought. As a common belief, moderate, severe, and extreme drought is observed at the end of the 1980s and around 2020, which is the closest year to the present. In addition, the trend analysis of the annual temperature (daily average) and total precipitation time series data collected from these 14 stations is examined. Sen test, Mann-Kendall test, and Spearman's rho test are used for trend detection. The Pettitt test is used to estimate the magnitude of the slope in the series and the Theil-Sen approach is used to detect the change point of the series. For precipitation, all stations showed a statistically significant increase in trends. In the temperature analysis, on the other hand, all stations show statistically significant increasing trends in daily average temperatures. The amount of precipitation increase determined by the Theil-Sen test is found to be between 4.2 and 7.9 mm/year.
Citation - WoS: 21
Citation - Scopus: 25
Drought Assessment in the Aegean Region of Turkey
(Springer, 2022) Mersin, Denizhan; Gülmez, Ayşe; Safari, Mir Jafar Sadegh; Vaheddoost, Babak; Tayfur, Gökmen; 03.03. Department of Civil Engineering; 03. Faculty of Engineering; 01. Izmir Institute of Technology
Drought indices are commonly used to monitor the duration and severity of droughts. In this regard, the continuously changing climate regardless of its cause or effect pushes the limit of the water deficit through time and space. Izmir is a raising city in Turkey, which owns various water resources including but not limited to seashores, lakes, river streams, and groundwater aquifers. In this study, the long-term precipitation and temperature records from 14 meteorological stations between 1973 and 2020 (for 47 years) are used to investigate the drought characteristics in Buyuk Menderes, Kucuk Menderes, and Gediz basins located in the Aegean region of Turkey. For this, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Percent of Normal (PNI), and the so-called Discrepancy Precipitation Index (DPI) are used with consideration to 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month moving averages to investigate the drought patterns. Results showed that the monthly indices depict very similar results for the entire region. However, in the 1980s and 2010s droughts were more severe than the rest of the historical records. When the moving average operator is implemented in the analysis (3-, 6- and 12-month periods), neither SPI nor the SPEI showed the same results at any stations. It is illustrated that the periods of severe and normal drought have occurred in the past, yet the indices that are obtained using average values are generally within the normal limits, but extreme values (extremely arid or extremely wet) occurred occasionally. It is also concluded that although there is a similarity between the implemented indices, the DPI and PNI depict the highest resemblance.
Citation - WoS: 2
Citation - Scopus: 2
Ensemble and Optimized Hybrid Algorithms Through Runge Kutta Optimizer for Sewer Sediment Transport Modeling Using a Data Pre-Processing Approach
(Elsevier, 2023) Safari, Mir Jafar Sadegh; Gül, Enes; Dursun, Ömer Faruk; Tayfur, Gökmen; 03.03. Department of Civil Engineering; 03. Faculty of Engineering; 01. Izmir Institute of Technology
Uncontrolled sediment deposition in drainage and sewer systems raises unexpected maintenance expenditures. To this end, implementation of an accurate model relying on effective parameters involved is a reliable benchmark. In this study, three machine learning techniques, namely extreme learning machine (ELM), multilayer perceptron neural network (MLPNN), and M5P model tree (M5PMT); and three optimization approaches of Runge Kutta (RUN), genetic algorithm (GA), and particle swarm optimization (PSO) are applied for modeling. The optimization and ensemble hybridization approaches are applied in the modeling procedure. For the case of hybrid optimized models, the ELM and MLPNN models are hybridized with RUN, GA, and PSO algorithms to develop six hybrid models of ELM-RUN, ELM-GA, ELM-PSO, MLPNN-RUN, MLPNN-GA, and MLPNN-PSO. Ensemble hybrid models are developed through coupling the ELM and MLPNN models with the M5PMT algorithm. The data pre-processing approach is applied to find the best randomness characteristic of the utilized data. Results illustrate that the RUN-based hybrid models outperform the GA- and PSO-based counterparts. Although the MLPNN-RUN and MLPNN-M5PMT hybrid models generate better results than their alternatives, MLPNN-M5PMT slightly outperforms MLPNN-RUN model with a coefficient of determination of 0.84 and a root mean square error of 0.88. The current study shows the superiority of the ensemble-based approach to the optimization techniques. Further investigation is needed by considering alternative optimization techniques to enhance sediment transport modeling. © 2023 International Research and Training Centre on Erosion and Sedimentation/the World Association for Sedimentation and Erosion Research
Citation - WoS: 2
Evaluation of Streamflow Drought Index in Aegean Region, Turkey
(Springer, 2022) Vaheddoost, Babak; Safari, Mir Jafar Sadegh; Gülmez, Ayşe; Mersin, Denizhan
Water is an invaluable substance of which ensures the life cycle and hydrological events across the world. In this respect, water deficit also known as drought is a natural disaster related to water scarcity in time and space. Although there is no solid definition for the phenomenon, the outcome of repeated wet and dry spells cause in economic, social, and political problems at regional, country-wide, and world-wide scale. In this study, drought associated with the streamflow in the Aegean region, which has an important economic, historical and wsocio-cultural role in the western Turkey, is investigated through the well-known streamflow drought index (SDI). Therefore, average discharge in the Cicekli-Nif, Besdegirmenler-Dandalas, Bebekler-Rahmanlar and Kocarli-Koprubasi station respectively related to on Gediz, Buyuk Menderes and Kucuk Menderes basins were used. Then SDI with 1, 3, 6,12 months moving average are acquired to express the drought severity associated with the streamflow in the basins. Results showed that the SDI values in all of stations together with the 1, 3, 6, and 12-month moving averages depicts similar results and no abnormal situation exist during the study period.
Citation - WoS: 31
Citation - Scopus: 36
Historical Trends Associated With Annual Temperature and Precipitation in Aegean Turkey, Where Are We Heading?
(MDPI, 2022-10) Mersin, Demirhan; Tayfur, Gökmen; Vaheddoost, Babak; Safari, Mir Jafar Sadegh; 03.03. Department of Civil Engineering; 03. Faculty of Engineering; 01. Izmir Institute of Technology
The trend analysis of annual temperature (daily average) and total precipitation has been conducted for 14 stations located in the Aegean Region, Turkey. The Sen, Spearman’s rho, and Mann-Kendall test methods are used in the detection of the historical trends in the region. The Pettitt test is also implemented to find the significance of the trend, while the Theil-Sen approach is applied to detect the change point(s) in the time series. Findings of the following study indicate that both precipitation and temperature time series in the selected stations depict statistically significant trends with increasing nature. The rate of increase in precipitation and temperature by the Theil-Sen test is found to be 4.2–7.9 mm/year and 0.20–0.35 °C/decade, respectively. It is also found that the turn points of the temperature trends determined by the Pettitt test occurred in 1998 for all the stations. According to the results, the magnitude of the extreme events would change in the future, which may help in conceptualizing the framework and the resilience of the infrastructures against climate change.
Citation - WoS: 6
Citation - Scopus: 7
A Joint Evaluation of Streamflow Drought and Standard Precipitation Indices in Aegean Region, Turkey
(SPRINGER BASEL AG, 2023) Gülmez, Ayşe; Mersin, Denizhan; Vaheddoost, Babak; Safari, Mir Jafar Sadegh; Tayfur, Gokmen; 03.03. Department of Civil Engineering; 03. Faculty of Engineering; 01. Izmir Institute of Technology
Water is an invaluable substance that ensures the life cycle and causes hydrologic events worldwide. Water deficit, also known as drought, is a naturally occurring disaster that affects the hydrometeorologic and/or climatic responses in time and space. In this study, the meteorologic and hydrologic droughts in Buyuk Menderes, Kucuk Menderes, and Gediz basins in Turkey are investigated. The streamflow drought index (SDI) and standard precipitation index (SPI) are used considering different time windows. To achieve this, the monthly streamflow at Cicekli-Nif, Besdegirmenler-Dandalas, Bebekler-Rahmanlar, and Kocarli-Koprubasi hydrometric stations together with monthly precipitation at 14 meteorologic stations during 1973-2020 (47 years) are used. The SDI and SPI with 1, 3, 6, and 12 months moving average are then used to express the association between the meteorologic and hydrologic droughts in the basin. Results showed that the SDI depicts no abnormal situations, while the SPI rates in the 1980s and 2010s indicated severe droughts. It was concluded that the inner parts of the basins are prone to frequent droughts, and there is a concordance between SPI and SDI patterns at the basin level. However, minor discrepancies between SPI and SDI do exist and probably originated from temporal delays and water abstraction.
Citation - WoS: 13
Citation - Scopus: 17
Meteorological Drought Assessment and Trend Analysis in Puntland Region of Somalia
(MDPI, 2023) Muse, Nur Mohamed; Tayfur, Gökmen; Safari, Mir Jafar Sadegh; 03.03. Department of Civil Engineering; 03. Faculty of Engineering; 01. Izmir Institute of Technology
Drought assessment and trend analysis of precipitation and temperature time series are essential in the planning and management of water resources. Long-term precipitation and temperature historical records (monthly for 41 years, from 1980 to 2020) are used to investigate annual drought characteristics and trend analysis in Somalia's northern region. Six drought indices of the normal Standardized Precipitation Index (normal-SPI), the log normal Standardized Precipitation Index (log-SPI), the Standardized Precipitation Index using the gamma distribution (Gamma-SPI), the Percent of Normal Index (PNI), the Discrepancy Precipitation Index (DPI), and the Deciles Index (DI) are used in this study for the annual drought assessment. The log-SPI, the gamma-SPI, the PNI, and the DPI could capture historical extreme and severe droughts that occurred in the early 1980s and over the last two decades. The results indicate that Somalia has gone through extended drought periods over the past quarter century, exacerbating the existing humanitarian situation. The normal-SPI, gamma-SPI, and PNI indicate less and moderate drought conditions, whereas log-SPI, DPI, and DI accurately capture historical extreme and severe drought periods; thus, these methods are recommended as annual drought assessment tools in the studied region. Not only are the PNI and DPI less correlated to each other, but their correlation coefficient (CC) with SPI-based drought indices are not as high as SPI-based indices which are close to unity. For the purpose of the trend analysis, the Mann Kendall (MK) test, the Spearman's rho (SR) test, and the Sen test are used. Furthermore, the Pettitt test is implemented to detect the change points and the Thiel-Sen approach is used to estimate the magnitude of trend in the precipitation and temperature time series. The results indicate that there is overall warming in the region which has experienced a significant shift in trend direction since 2000. The trend analysis of annual precipitation data time series shows that Bossaso and Garowe stations have significant positive trends, while the Qardho station has no trend. In 1997 and 1998, respectively, abrupt changes in annual precipitation are detected at Qardho and Garowe stations. Due to the civil war of more than three decades in Somalia and the non-institutionalized governance to inform historical drought conditions in the country, determining the most appropriate meteorological drought index would help to develop a drought monitoring system for states and the entire country.